Five Equal Marriage predictions for 2013

It is the season to look back and look ahead. Here are some equal marriage-related predictions for 2013...

1. Equal marriage will be passed in England and Wales
The UK government recently announced that civil marriage would be opened to same-sex couples and that religions (except for the established Church of England) would be able to opt-in to also offer equal marriage. Even with all three major political parties having a free vote, i expect that this will pass the House of Commons with a clear majority. The House of Lords may be a problem but this has become a high profile government policy and so should be passed.


2. Equal marriage will be passed in Scotland
Marriage is a devolved issue and the Scottish government is also consulting on a draft Marriage & Civil Partnership bill. Equal marriage is supported by all the parties in the Scottish parliament (as long as religions are not forced to marry people they don't want to) so i also expect this to go through (probably quicker than for England and Wales as it does not have to go through the House of Lords).

3. Equal marriage will not be passed in Northern Ireland
Marriage is also devolved to Northern Ireland. There are civil partnerships in Northern Ireland as they were passed before the issue was devolved. A motion in favour of equal marriage was rejected in September 2012, with only the Greens and Sinn Fein in favour. The Alliance party has made some progress on the issue but unless the DUP changes its policy, i can't see equal marriage being passed for a very long time. The chair of the campaign for marriage equality in Northern Ireland has said that one future possibility is judicially forcing the recognition of same-sex marriages registered in the rest of the UK (but that won't be until 2014 at the earliest). 

4. Equal marriage will be passed in more countries around the world, but not the USA as a whole
There have been promising developments in Uruguay and TaiwanTaiwan, and also in states in Mexico and the USA. The USA Supreme Court will be reviewing two gay-related cases in 2013 - one against the Defence of Marriage Act and one against Proposition 8. I'm no lawyer (and not American) but i expect the Defence of Marriage Act will be struck down, recognising that marriage is a state issue in the USA and therefore the federal government should recognise same-sex marriages if the relevant state does. The Prop 8 case is more complicated. I strongly doubt that the Supreme Court would rule that there is a nation-wide constitutional right to equal marriage. I expect that there will be a compromise so that equal marriage becomes legal in California but not automatically anywhere else.

5. Equal marriage will not mean the end of: the world/religious liberty/the right to criticise
Since 2001, same-sex marriage has been legalised in eleven countries (Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, South Africa, Sweden) and several sub-national jurisdictions (parts of Brazil,Mexico and the United States). The world has not ended. Religious organisations in those countries have not been banned. Citizens still have freedom of speech. Yes forms have been updated. Yes I'm sure children are now taught that same-sex marriage exists. Yes the definition of marriage has changed but that has happened multiple times. Before equal marriage, current marriage law is clearly different to biblical marriage law (as the infographic below shows).