It's the season to look back (and forward). Last year i posted Five Equal Marriage predictions for 2013 and the world has definitely moved on - so how did i do...
1. Equal marriage will be passed in England and Wales
The big vote in the House of Commons on the Marriage (Same Sex) Couples Bill was on it's third reading in May - a vote won by 366 votes to 161 votes. The bill then progressed to the House of Lords. A wrecking amendment was defeated in June and finally approved the bill in July. Royal Assent was soon granted and the bill became law. Not surprisingly I was pleased. It was recently announced that same-sex weddings will take place from 29 March 2014 although it is still not clear when civil partnerships will be able to be upgraded.
Score - 1 for me!
2. Equal marriage will be passed in Scotland
Scotland has been lagging a bit behind England and Wales. A proposed draft bill was published in December 2012 for consultation. The actual draft bill was published in June and reviewed by a committee in September before being approved by them in November.There are still more stages to go through but the signs are looking good.
Score - 1/2 (for now)
3. Equal marriage will not be passed in Northern Ireland
Whilst the Marriage (Same Sex) Couples Bill only covered England and Wales, MPs from Northern Ireland (and Scotland) could vote on it. Only two MPs from Northern Ireland voted in favour of it, whilst nine voted against and two did not vote. This set the scene for a vote in April in the Northern Ireland Assembly on a motion calling for legislation to allow same-sex marriage in the province. The vote was lost by 53 votes to 42 (with all the unionists voting against, the nationalists in favour and the Alliance party split). The Northern Ireland Equality Commission has declared that it supports equal marriage but i doubt that the politicians will change their minds.
There has been some progress on other areas of gay equality in Northern Ireland with the condemnation of the irrational lifetime ban on blood donation by gay men and lifting of a ban on adoption by gay (and unmarried) couples. I hope that equal marriage will eventually come to Northern Ireland, but i fear that that will be in many years.
Score - 1 (Unfortunately!)
4. Equal marriage will be passed in more countries around the world, but not the USA as a whole
The USA Supreme Court will be reviewing two gay-related cases in 2013 - one against the Defence of Marriage Act and one against Proposition 8. I'm no lawyer (and not American) but i expect the Defence of Marriage Act will be struck down, recognising that marriage is a state issue in the USA and therefore the federal government should recognise same-sex marriages if the relevant state does. The Prop 8 case is more complicated. I strongly doubt that the Supreme Court would rule that there is a nation-wide constitutional right to equal marriage. I expect that there will be a compromise so that equal marriage becomes legal in California but not automatically anywhere else.
During 2013 Brazil, France, Uruguay, and New Zealand legalised same-sex marriage. In the USA, back in June the Supreme Court first of all struck down part of the Defence of Marriage Act and then ruled that the proponents of Prop 8 had no right to appeal an appeal court decision allowing equal marriage in California (but only California). During 2013, Rhode Island, Delaware, Minnesota, New Jersey, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, and Utah (temporarily) all legalised same-sex marriage. So now 17 states (and the District of Columbia) has legalised same-sex marriage - good progress!
Score - 1 for me
5. Equal marriage will not mean the end of: the world/religious liberty/the right to criticise
OK so this was me being sarcastic but it true that the world is still here and the universal declaration of human rights still includes the right of freedom of religion and freedom of speech.
Score - 1
Result - 4 1/2 out of 5 - Woop woop!
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